Robert Mugabe is showing no sign of loosening his grip on power in Zimbabwe, but speculation is mounting about who will succeed the nonagenarian president. Africa Integrity’s founder and managing director Julian Fisher examines the unfolding situation in Zimbabwe in IHS Jane’s Intelligence Review February 2015. In this article Julian discusses the current political, social, economic, security, and external stability of the country in the wake of ZANU-PF’s December 2014 Congress. He examines topics such as: the purging of former vice president Joice Mujuru and the subsequent re-emergence of Emmerson Mnangagwa in the Zanu-PF; the rapid rise of Mugabe’s wife as a political figure in her own right; the apparent decline of the MDC-T under Morgan Tsvangirai’s leadership; the precarious economic situation in the country; and Zimbabwe’s strained relations with the West. He also outlines three possible scenarios concerning Mugabe’s succession, which are: Mugabe dies while still holding office; Mugabe resigns in favour of his wife; or Factionalism destroys ZANU-PF party.
The full article, which provides risk ratings for the current situation and each of the possible scenarios, can be found by subscribers at http://www.janes.com/magazines/ihs-janes-intelligence-review .